Sezvo Mutambo weChirimo wava kusvika, nyanzvi dzezvekutengeserana kwekunze dzava kuda kupinda muhwindo regore negore rakakosha - iroKutanga kwakasimba kwekota yekutanga ya2026Kutangwazve kwebasa mushure mezororo, kudzorerwa kwezvinhu zviri kunze kwenyika, kutanga kwezvigadzirwa zvitsva mumisika yepamhepo, uye kuwanda kwemitengo mumisika iri kusimukira, pamwe chete nekugadziriswazve kwecheni yepasi rose yekupa zvinhu, kudiwa kuri kuwedzera kweAI nesimba idzva, uye shanduko dzemaumbirwo enzira dzekutakura zvinhu nemitengo yekutakura zvinhu —Kusarudza mhando dzezvigadzirwa zvakakodzera, kuronga nguva yekufamba kwako nemazvo, uye kuchengetedza nzvimbo yekutakura zvinhu pachine nguva zvichagadzira zvakananga mafambiro egore..
I. 2026 Q1 Mamiriro Ekutengeserana Kwekunze: Kufambira Mberi Kwakagadzikana Nekuvandudzwa Kwechivakwa
•Kukura Kwese: Goldman Sachs anofanotaura kuti kukura kweChina kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika (USD-denominated) kuchasvika 5.6% muna 2026, nehuwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika huchiramba huchikura neanopfuura 5%, zvichiratidza kusimba kukuru.
•Kutarisa paMamiriro Ezvinhu: Kugadzira zvishandiso, maindasitiri etekinoroji yepamusoro, simba idzva, uye kutengeserana kwepamhepo kuri kuramba kuchitungamira; kukura kwekutengesa kunze kwezvinhu zvepakati nepakati kuri kupfuura zvakanyanya kukura kwezvinhu zvevatengi.
•Mamiriro eMusika: ASEAN kutanga, Middle East / Russia / Africa kukura kwakanyanya, Europe neUS zvichiratidza kudzoka kwakasimba.
•Data Rakakosha: Muna 2025, kukosha kwese kwekutengeswa kweChina kwakasvika RMB 26.99 trillion, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe6.1%; kutengeswa kwemidziyo yakagadzirwa kunze kwenyika kwakasvika RMB 16.03 trillion, kuwedzera ne9.2%, zvichiita 59.4% yezvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.
•Hunhu hwezvinhu zvinofambiswa: Kukwanisa kutumira zvinhu kwakaderera nguva yezororo isati yasvika, kunonoka kupora; kuchinja-chinja kwenzira dzeAsia-Europe/Mediterranean, nguva dzakagadzikana dzekufambisa kuenda kuSoutheast Asia/Middle East.
II. Zvikamu Zvikuru zveQ1 zve2026 zveKutanga Kwakasimba
1. "Zvitatu Zvitsva": Injini Huru Yegore, Kukura Kwakasimba Kwakaramba Kuchienderera Mberi muKota Yekutanga
Mota dzemagetsi (EVs), mabhatiri e lithium, uye zvikamu zve photovoltaic (PV) zvinoramba zviri zvinhu zvinosimudzira kukura kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika. Kuzadzwa kwemagetsi kunze kwenyika mushure mezororo, pamwe chete nekudiwa kwakasimba kwemitemo nezvivakwa.
Ruzivo Runokosha:
• Huwandu hwese hwe "Zvitatu Zvitsva" zvekutumira kunze kwenyika muna 2025 hwaswedera pedyoRMB 1.3 tiririyoni, aKuwedzera kwe3.5-fold mumakore mashanu, kumusoro27.1%gore negore.
•Mota Itsva dzeSimba: Kutengeswa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika kwasvikaMayunitsi mamiriyoni 2.315mumwedzi gumi nerimwe yekutanga ya2025,+102.9%gore negore; avhareji yemutengo weyunitiUSD 20,000–30,000Kukosha kwekutumira kunze kwenyika kwemwedzi mumwe chete muna Zvita+71.7%gore negore.
•Mabhatiri eLithium: Kukosha kwekutumira kunze kwenyika kwa2025RMB 570.86 bhiriyoni,+24.4%gore negore; Ndira-Gunyana zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyikaMabhiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica 55.38 bhiriyoni,+26.8%gore negore.
•Photovoltaics: Zvakatengeswa kunze kwenyika zvakadarikaRMB mabhiriyoni mazana mavirikwemakore mana akatevedzana; kudiwa kwakawanda kwezviteshi zvemagetsi zvekunze kwenyika mukota yekutanga.
Misika Inokosha: ASEAN, Middle East, Russia, North Africa, South America
Zvinhu Zvikuru zveLogistics:
•NEVs: Ngarava dzeRo-Ro / maflat racks, kuziviswa kwezvinhu zvine njodzi, marezenisi ekutumira kunze kwenyika, kubvumidzwa kwemitero yekuenda kunzvimbo
•Mabhatiri eLithium: UN38.3, chitupa chezvinhu zvine njodzi, kurongedza huwandu hushoma, nzvimbo yakatarwa yemutsetse
•Photovoltaics: Mutoro wakazara wemidziyo, nyatsoteererai hwindo rekugadzirisa chimiro chemitengo yeVAT
Kufanotaura kweKota yekutanga: Kukura kwegore negore kwakaramba kuripo pa25%–40%nzvimbo yakamanikana yemugaba inoratidzakuchengetedza nzvimbo zororo risati rasvika.
2. Zvemagetsi & ICT: AI-Drived, Strong Semiconductor Rebound (Clear High Growth)
Inotungamirirwa nemaseva eAI, nzvimbo dzedata, uye kudzoreredzwa kwezvinhu zvemagetsi zvevatengi,maseketi akabatanidzwa, makomputa, michina yekutaurirana, uye mapaneru ekuratidzavari kunzwa kudzokororwa kwakasimba.
Ruzivo Runokosha:
• Zvita 2025 kukosha kwekutengeswa kwedunhu rakabatanidzwa+47.7%gore negore,kupfuura nharembozha sechigadzirwa chikuru chinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.
• Mwero wekukura kwemakombiyuta nemidziyo yekutaurirana isina waya wasvika pamwedzi mumwe chete89.2%uye66.9%zvichiteerana; kutumira kunze kwenyika nharembozha+41.2%.
• Zvinhu zvinopinzwa kubva kuUS zvine chekuita neAI zvakawedzera48.3%–89.2%, zvichikonzera kukura kukuru kwekutengeserana kwezvinhu zveICT neChina.
Misika Inokosha: USA, Europe, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea
Zvinhu Zvikuru zveLogistics: Zvinhu zvinotakura zvinhu zvine mutengo wakakwirira zvinofarira zvinhu zvinotakura zvinhu nendege/zvikepe zvinomhanya, kudzora tembiricha nehunyoro, kutevedza zvizere, uye vimbiso yekukuvadzwa kushoma.
Kufanotaura kweKota yekutanga: Mwaka wepamusoro wezvinhu zvinotumirwa nemagetsi; mitengo yekutakura zvinhu nendege ichikwira nguva nenguva muna Kukadzi-Kurume; mwero wekukura30%+.
3. Michina & Kuvaka Ngarava: Kusashanda Kwakasimba Kwezvinhu Zvakatengeswa, Kutengeswa Kunze Kwenyika Kwakasimba Zvikuru
Michina yakawanda, mota, midziyo yemumba, uye kuvaka ngaravakubatsirwa nekuvandudzwa kwemaindasitiri pasi rose uye kukura kwakanyanya kwezvikwereti, nekutumira zvinhu zvakanyanya mukota yekutanga.
Ruzivo Runokosha:
• Kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvemakanika nemagetsi mugore ra2025 kwasvikaRMB 12.07 tiririyoni, kumusoro9.6%, vachiverenga nezve60.5%yezvinhu zvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.
• Zvinhu zvikuru zvakaita sengarava, majenareta, mapombi, macompressorzvakapa 0.4–1 muzana yezvikamu pakukura kwese kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika.
Zvikamu Zvikuru: Mapombi, macompressor, majenareta, ma air conditioner emumba, michina yekuwachisa, firiji yekutengeserana, ngarava dzemakontena / matangi
Misika Inokosha: ASEAN, Middle East, Africa, South America, Europe
Zvinhu Zvikuru zveLogistics: Kusimbiswa kwekutakura zvinhu zvikuru, machira akatsetseka / matipi akavhurika, kubviswa kwemitengo kwakabatana kwenzvimbo dzekutakura zvinhu uye kutakura zvinhu nemarori.
Kufanotaura kweKota yekutanga: Kuvimbika kwakanyanya, zvibvumirano zvakawanda zvenguva refu; mwero wekukura8%–12%, yakakodzera kuronga nzvimbo kwenguva refu.
4. Zvinhu Zvinokosha pakutengeserana paindaneti: Kuburitswa kweZvigadzirwa Zvitsva zveChirimo + Kushandiswa Kwemazororo, Kukura Kwakakura Kwemaodha Madiki, Anokurumidza Kuchinja-chinja
Kuburitswa kwezvinhu zvitsva zvekunze kwechirimo, mwaka wekudzokera kuchikoro, kuvandudzwa kwedzimba, uye zviitiko zvekunze, pamwe chete nekukura kukuru kwekutengeserana kwepamhepo muSoutheast Asia, Russia, neMiddle East —zvinhu zvidiki zvakareruka, zvinhu zvinotengeswa nekukurumidza, zvigadzirwa zvepamba, uye midziyo midikikuramba tichiona huwandu hwezvinhu zvinoputika.
Ruzivo Runokosha:
• Kutengeswa kwemagetsi kunze kwenyika kweChina kunotarisirwa kusvika padanho repamusoroRMB 3.2 tiririyonimuna 2026, zvichireva kuti28%yekutengeserana kwekunze kwenyika.
• Musika wekutengesa paindaneti muSoutheast Asia uchapfuuraMabhiriyoni zana nemakumi mashanu emadhora ($150 bhiriyoni)muna 2026, nekukura kwegore negore kwe15%Kukura kwekutengeserana kwepamhepo muIndonesia22%, India17.6%.
• B2B inoyambuka miganhu inobhadhara mari inosvika mamiriyoni makumi maviri70%, nekukura kwakanyanya kupfuura B2C; huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotakura muQ1+30%+mwedzi nemwedzi.
Zvikamu Zvikuru: Zvinodiwa zvemhuri zuva nezuva, zvinhu zvekuchengetera zvinhu, midziyo midiki, midziyo yekubikira, nzvimbo yekuzororera panze, midziyo yemitambo, mbatya dzechitubu, zvinhu zvemhuka dzinovaraidza, midziyo ye3C
Misika Inokosha: Southeast Asia (TikTok Shop), Russia, Middle East, e-commerce yemuno
Zvinhu Zvikuru zveLogistics: Nzvimbo yekuchengetera zvinhu kunze kwenyika, mapasuru madiki akatsaurirwa, sevhisi yeDDP, nguva dzakagadzikana dzekufambisa, kurasikirwa kwakaderera kwekudzoka.
Kufanotaura kweKota yekutanga: Huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotakura zvinhu zveE-commerce+30%+mwedzi nemwedzi; mitengo yemitengo iri kuramba ichikwira zvishoma nezvishoma.
5. Zvinhu Zvinodiwa Muchando & Zvinhu Zvinotengeswa Nevatengi Zvinofamba Nekukurumidza: Russia / Middle East / Europe Replenishment Window
Ndira-Kurume ichiri mwaka wekupisa muNorthern Hemisphere.zvishandiso zvekudziyisa, machira epamba anodziya, mbatya hombe, uye midziyo midikiichiri yakasimba muRussia, Eastern Europe, neCentral Asia.
Ruzivo Runokosha:
• Kukura kwekutengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika kuRussia neCentral Asia kwapfuura15%+kwenguva dzakawanda dzakatevedzana; kudiwa kwakanyanya kwemidziyo yekudziyisa, magumbeze emagetsi, majaketi ekupfeka.
• Kukura kwekutengeserana kunze kwenyika muna 2025 kuenda kuASEAN11.1%, Latin America9.8%, Africa13.7%; kusimba kwakasimba kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa nevatengi mumisika iri kusimukira.
Zvikamu Zvikuru: Zvidziyo zvemagetsi, magumbeze emagetsi, majaketi ekudzika, magumbeze, midziyo midiki yeEuropean-standard
Zvinodiwa Zvikuru: Zvitupa zvakakwana (CE/EAC/GOST), kugadziriswa kwemagetsi, kurongedza zvinoenderana nezvinodiwa
Zvinhu Zvikuru zveLogistics: Zvitima zveChina neRussia, mitsetse yekutakura zvinhu nendege, nguva dzakagadzikana dzekutakura zvinhu nepachiteshi chepasi.
Kufanotaura kweKota yekutanga: Kuzadza zvinhu zvakawandisa mukati memwedzi mumwe mushure mezororo; zvinhu zvisina chitupa chakakodzera zvinogona kurambwa.
6. Zvigadzirwa zvekurima & Zvekudya Zvakagadzirwa: Zvinonyanya Kukoshesa Hutano, Zviri Nyore, Zvinokura Zvikuru muASEAN / North America
Zvekudya zvakagadzirwa, mapuroteni anobva muzvirimwa, zvigadzirwa zvemumvura, tii, uye zvigadzirwa zvekurima zvemhando yepamusoroBatsirwa nekudya zvine hutano uye zvinodiwa nevatengi vekuChina vari kunze kwenyika. Kutevedza mitemo yekudya uye kutevedzera mitemo ndizvo zvinonyanya kukosha.
Ruzivo Runokosha:
• Kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvekurima kunze kwenyika kunoita kuti kukura kwacho kurambe kwakasimba5%–8%kudiwa kwemidziyo yechando cheni+12%gore negore.
• Musika wemhuka dzemhuka pasi rose unotarisirwa kusvikaMabhiriyoni mazana mashanu emadhora emadhora ($500 bhiriyoni)muna 2026, nekukura kwegore negore kwe6%–8%; kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuri kuwedzera panguva imwe chete.
Zvikamu Zvikuru: Zvigadzirwa zvesoya, zvigadzirwa zvemumvura, ndiro dzakagadzirwa, tii, nzungu, zvinonhuhwirira
Misika Inokosha: ASEAN, USA, Canada, Australia, Europe
Zvinhu Zvikuru zveLogistics: Matangi echando, kutevedza tembiricha, kuongororwa kwezvinhu uye kunyorwa kwemitero, kutevedzera label.
Kufanotaura kweKota yekutanga: Kukura kwakasimba, mitengo yakakwira yekutengwazve, yakakodzera kutumirwa kwenguva refu kwakasimba.
III. 2026 Q1 Misika Yakakosha & Mikana Yenzira
1. ASEAN (Mubatsiri Mukuru weKutengeserana)
• Mwero wekukura unofungidzirwa we9.4%muna 2026.
• Nguva dzekufambisa dzinokurumidza, dzinodhura zvishoma, uye dzakagadzikana.
• Kutumirwa kwakasimba kwezvinhu zvepamba, 3C, michina, zvinhu zvekutengesa paindaneti.
Zvakanakira:Kutakurwa Kwezvitima zveGungwa neNjanji, Kutakurwa Kwemhando Dzakawanda Pasi.
2. Russia neCentral Asia
• Kuwedzera kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zvinodziya, midziyo yemagetsi, zvinhu zvinotengeswa zvinofamba nekukurumidza.
• Mwero wekukura15%+.
• Zvikurukuruzvitima, kutakurwa nendege, kutakurwa kwenyika.
• Kukosha: Kutevedzera mitemo uye chitupa.
3. Middle East
• Kudiwa kukuru kwesimba idzva, zvivakwa, midziyo yemagetsi, zvemagetsi.
• Mwero wekukura10%–15%.
•Kutakura zvinhu mugungwa zvakananga + nzvimbo yekuchengetera zvinhu kunze kwenyikakuti pave nemakwikwi akawanda.
4. Europe (Nzira dzeMediterranean / Asia-Europe)
• Kutengeswa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika kuEurope kwakakwira8.1%mumwedzi gumi nerimwe yekutanga ya2025; kupora kunoramba kuripo muna 2026.
• Mapoka makuru:Simba idzva, zvemagetsi, michina.
• Chenjererai kuchinja-chinja kwenzira uye muripo wekuwedzera;bhukira nzvimbo nekukurumidza.
5. Africa neLatin America
• Kukura kwakanyanya mumota, michina, midziyo yemagetsi, zvinhu zvekuvaka.
• Kukura kweAfrica13.7%, Latin America9.8%.
• ZvikurukuruFCL, kubvumidzwa kwemitero kwakaoma.
• Kurudziramhinduro dzekugadzirisa zvinhu kamwe chete.
6. Nyika dzakabatana
• Kupora kwechikamu chemuviri asi zviri pasi pekumanikidzwa.
• Kukura kwakafungidzirwa kuri pedyo-5%muna 2026.
• Tarisa panezvigadzirwa zvinokoshesa zvakanyanya, zvinotevedzera mitemo.
• Kukosha kwezvekufambisa:Ngarava dzinomhanya, kudzora tembiricha, kutevedza kwakawanda.
IV. Zviyeuchidzo Zvikuru zveLogistics & Shipping zve2026 Q1 (Zvakakosha kune Nyanzvi dzeKutengeserana Kunze Kwenyika)
1. Mutambo wechirimo wezororo reRhythm
• Mafekitori akavharwa pakati paKukadzi, anotangazve pakupera kwaKukadzi.
• Migwagwa yekutumira zvinhu, zviteshi zvengarava, kutenderera kwemitero pabasa.
•Hafu yekutanga yaKukadzi ndiyo nguva yekupedzisira yekutumira zvinhu zvakawanda.
2. Nzvimbo & Mitengo
• Nguva yezororo isati yasvika: Nzvimbo shoma panzira dzekuSoutheast Asia / Middle East.
• Mushure mezororo: Kupora zvizere panosvika Kurume.
•Isa nzvimbo yakakosha yekuchengetedza nzvimbo dzeNew Three / Electronics dzinodhura zvakanyanya.
3. Mitsetse Tsvuku yeKutevedzera Mutemo
•Mabhatiri eLithium / NEV: Kurongedza zvinhu zvine njodzi, nhamba yeUN, kuzivisa kwakafanana — dzivisa kuchengetwa kwemidziyo uye faindi.
•Zvinhu zvekutengesa paindaneti: Zviratidzo zvekutengeserana zvisati zvaongororwa, kutyorwa kwemutemo, zvitupa, zvinodiwa nemitero yekuenda.
4. Nzira Yakakanganisika
•Mapoka ekuchinja-chinja kwepamusoro: Matura ekuchengetera zvinhu kunze kwenyika asati asvika zororo, anotumirwa zvakananga mushure mezororo.
•Zvibvumirano zvekutakura zvinhu zvakawanda / Zvenguva refu: Bhuka nzvimboMazuva gumi kusvika gumi nemashanu zvisati zvaitika, dzivisai kuwanda kwevanhu pazuva rekutanga rekudzoka kubasa.
V. Pfupiso: Kutanga Kwakasimba kwa2026 — Tarisa paMitsetse Mitatu Mikuru
1. Chinangwa cheMasekta Ane Kukura Kwakanyanya: Zvitatu Zvitsva, Electronics ICT, Michina & Kuvaka Zvikepe (Kuvimbika Kwakanyanya)
2. Misika Inobuda Yakanangana: ASEAN, Russia, Middle East, Africa (Kukura Kunokurumidza)
3. Bata Zvakanakira Zvekutakura Zvinhu: Chengetedza nzvimbo isati yasvika zororo, isa zvinhu zvinotevedzwa pamitemo, isa nzvimbo dzekuchengetera zvinhu kunze kwenyika, ita kuti zvionekwe kubva pakutanga kusvika pakupedzisira.
Gore reBhiza rasvika. Kusarudza mhando dzezvigadzirwa zvakakodzera = hafu yehondo yatakakunda. Kusarudza mubatsiri wezvekufambisa akakodzera = rwendo rusina kunetseka.
Nguva yekutumira: Kukadzi-28-2026